An Economic Evaluation of Infrastructure Options for Meeting Gas Demand up to 2025
Prepared for the Department Of Public Enterprise
(Certain material has been deleted from this report due to commercial sensitivity).
6th September 1999
DKM Economic Consultants Ltd.
Davy House,
49 Dawson Street,
Dublin 2.
Telephone: +353 1 6797755
Fax: +353 1 6796379
E-mail: dkm@davy.ie
Contents
Section 1 Introduction and Executive Summary
Section 2 Demand Scenarios
2.1: The Basic Methodology
2.2: The Gas Demand Scenarios
2.3: The Main Assumptions
2.4: Gas Demand Forecasts
2.5: Northern Ireland Gas Demand Forecasts
2.6: General Comments on Demand Scenarios
Section 3 The Gas 2025 Study
3.1: The Existing Gas Infrastructure
3.2: Identification of Supply Configurations
3.3: Comparison of Supply Configurations
3.4: Phasing of Expenditure
3.5: The Enterprise Supply Option
3.6: Project Programme
Section 4 BG/KeySpan Proposal
4.1: Introduction
4.2: BG/KeySpans Costings
4.3: Demand Scenarios
4.4: Observations on the BG/KeySpan Report
4.5: Comparisons with Sofregaz Calculations
4.6: Summary
Section 5 Shannon-McManus Report
5.1: Introduction
5.2: Results
5.3: Assumptions
5.4: Comparison with the Original Reports
5.5: Summary
Section 6 Alternative Supply Options
6.1: Introduction
6.2: Domestic Offshore Discoveries
6.3: Canatxx
6.4: Questar
6.5: Running Kinsale in the Winter Only
6.6: Further Options
Section 7 Demand Sensitivities
7.1: The Demand Sensitivities
Section 8 Gas Policy Issues
8.1: IFI
8.2: Energy Prices and Taxes
8.3: Environmental Impact
8.4: Risk Analysis
8.5: Gas Pricing Policy
8.6: Natural Gas and Oil Prices
8.7: Changes in Regulatory Regime
8.8: The Shadow Price of EU Funds
8.9: Security of SupplySection 9 Sensitivity Analysis of Discount Rates
Section 9 Sensitivity Analysis of Discount Rates
9.1: Introduction
9.2: BGE/Sofregas Gas Optimisation Report
9.3: BG/KeySpan
9.4: Shannon-McManus
9.5: Summary
Section 10 Conclusions and Recommendations
10.1: Appraisal of the Supply Options
10.2: Recommendation
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
We wish to acknowledge the many organisations and individuals whom we consulted while preparing this report. Their help and assistance were much appreciated.